Category Archives: pdoerpkyt

Metabolic demand, oxygen supply, and critical temperatures in the Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica

first_imgOxygen consumption ((M) over dot o(2)), heartbeat rate and form, and circulating hemolymph oxygen content were measured in relation to temperature in the large Antarctic infaunal bivalve Laternula elliptica. After elevations in temperature from 0degrees to 3degrees, 6degrees, and then 9degreesC, (M) over dot o(2) and heartbeat rate rose to new levels, whereas. maximum circulating hemolymph oxygen content fell. At 0degreesC, (M) over dot o(2) was 19.6 mumol O-2 h(-1) for a standard animal of 2-g tissue. ash-free dry mass, which equates to a 8.95-g tissue dry-mass or 58.4-g tissue wet-mass animal. Elevation of metabolism following temperature change had acute Q(10) values between 4.1 and 5, whereas acclimated figures declined from 3.4 (between 0degrees and 3degreesC) to 2.2 (3degrees-6degreesC) and 1.9 (6degrees-9degreesC). Heartbeat rate showed no acclimation following temperature elevations, with Q(10) values of 3.9, 3.2, and 4.3, respectively. Circulating hemolymph oxygen content declined from 0degrees to 3degrees and 6degreesC but stayed at a constant Po-2 (73-78 mmHg) and constant proportion (similar to50%) of the oxygen content of the ambient water. At 9degreesC, (M) over dot o(2) and heartbeat rate both peaked at values 3.3 times those. measured at 0degreesC, which may indicate aerobic scope in this species. After these peaks, both measures declined rapidly over the ensuing 5 d to the lowest measured in the study, and the bivalves began to die. Hemolymph oxygen content fell dramatically at 9degreesC to values between 2% and 12% of ambient water O-2 content and had a maximum Po-2 of around 20 mmHg. These data indicate an experimental upper lethal temperature of 9degreesC and a critical temperature, where a long-term switch to anaerobic metabolism probably occurs, of around 6degreesC for L. elliptica. Concurrent measures of mitochondrial function in the same species had indicated strong thermal sensitivity in proton leakage costs, and our data support the hypothesis that as temperature rises, mitochondrial maintenance costs rapidly outstrip oxygen supply mechanisms in cold stenothermal marine species.last_img read more

Are the Tories (finally) turning against Stamp Duty?

first_imgThe campaign to reform the current Stamp Duty system and have recent increases for landlords and owners of high-value homes reversed is gaining momentum as a raft of the Tory MPs, think tanks and media line up.Yesterday the free-market supporting Adam Smith Institute said current Stamp Duty system is costing the economy over £9 billion a year because it prevents people moving to the homes they want near to their place of work, and that they must commute long distances instead.The Telegraph newspaper has also been running a campaign to reform the duty, which it says taxes too unfairly those who through no fault of their own have to pay high prices to move up their local property ladder.This week the right-wing MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (pictured, left) said the UK should move to a ‘low taxation’ home ownership model and that, in the same way a cut to business taxes helped stimulate economic activity, so a cut to Stamp Duty would achieve the same thing.And former Tory party leader Ian Duncan-Smith (pictured, right) said in July that that the government should be using Stamp Duty to encourage landlords, not put them off investing.“It is time for us to reconsider the way we treat private landlords who buy houses to rent,” he said in an article for Conservative Home.“A large number of them are talking about no longer buying to let, and they blame it on George Osborne’s decision to impose a stamp duty levy on the purchase of homes to rent, to restrict mortgage interest relief to the basic rate of income tax, and to tax a landlord’s turnover rather than profits.“And the government’s own spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, has urged the Chancellor Phillip Hammond to reform Stamp Duty because it was a “tax on moving”.Agents have been railing against the recent Stamp Duty increases and band changes too, including naea | propertymark, which has been running a campaign to reform Stamp Duty since 2009.And Spicerhaart boss Paul Smith (pictured, right) last weekend told The Mail on Sunday that “home ownership is at a 30-year low and the market has slowed significantly since the Government’s stamp duty reforms were introduced. The next Budget is the right time to look again at this tax and tackle our home ownership crisis.”    Ian Duncan Smith Jacob Rees Mogg Paul Smith August 15, 2017Nigel LewisWhat’s your opinion? Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment.Please note: This is a site for professional discussion. Comments will carry your full name and company.This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.Related articles BREAKING: Evictions paperwork must now include ‘breathing space’ scheme details30th April 2021 City dwellers most satisfied with where they live30th April 2021 Hong Kong remains most expensive city to rent with London in 4th place30th April 2021 Home » News » Agencies & People » Are the Tories (finally) turning against Stamp Duty? previous nextHousing MarketAre the Tories (finally) turning against Stamp Duty?Damage being done to housing market is persuading several leading Conservative MPs to stick the knife in, although not always for the same ideological reasons.Nigel Lewis15th August 201701,832 Viewslast_img read more

Purplebricks will struggle to make headway in New York

first_imgHome » News » Agencies & People » Purplebricks will struggle to make headway in New York previous nextAgencies & PeoplePurplebricks will struggle to make headway in New YorkLonres chairman also claims Purplebricks is only making progress in lower value sectors of market both in the UK and US.Nigel Lewis14th August 20181 Comment2,737 Views Hybrid estate agency Purplebricks will struggle to make headway in its key US market of New York, it has been claimed.These comments come William Carrington (pictured, above) the chairman of prime London property data and listings firm Lonres.He says that New York is a different property market to the UK and highlights the huge cost to Purplebricks of gaining access to its potential riches, as highlighted in the company’s most recent financials.Each listing in New York is costing Purplebricks $21,482 or £16,784, compared to just £312.50p in the UK.Significant inroads“I do not see them making any significant inroads into New York City which is a closed market with realtors who are embedded,” he says.Carrington compares New York with London’s prime central neighbourhoods where Lonres says Purplebricks has just 1% of the market, 7% less than the national share claimed by TwentyCI’s recent research.It’s recent report also confirmed that all of Purplebricks’ growth in the UK has come from the sub-£1m property market.“Logic might dictate that a fixed-price service would be more attractive to sellers of higher-priced properties, but perhaps this group of vendors is motivated by factors other than just price,” says TwentyCI’s Customer Officer Colin Bradshaw.Purplebricks launched in New York in April this year, three months ahead of its original schedule in a bid to catch the city’s Spring market, giving it access to 31 counties, 7.4 million households and 20 million people.Purplebricks remains coy about the number of Local Property Experts working on its behalf in the US, but research reveals approximately 30 in Los Angeles, 20 in the Tri State Area around New York and 12 based out of Phoenix, Arizona.New York Purplebricks LonRes William Carrington August 14, 2018Nigel LewisOne commentChris Arnold, Agency Negotiation Agency Negotiation 14th August 2018 at 2:45 pmSome agencies set the bar so low, it’s hardly worth picking up the phone. These agencies will attract those vendors that are willing to accept this mediocrity as long as the service isn’t totally broken.Vendors that don’t bother to ask questions and instead rely on the pr. machine and the fake reviews sites in order to save them the bother of thinking for themselves.One has to question whether the original business model was to create an estate agency, or simply as a vehicle to attract investment.Log in to ReplyWhat’s your opinion? Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment.Please note: This is a site for professional discussion. Comments will carry your full name and company.This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.Related articles BREAKING: Evictions paperwork must now include ‘breathing space’ scheme details30th April 2021 City dwellers most satisfied with where they live30th April 2021 Hong Kong remains most expensive city to rent with London in 4th place30th April 2021last_img read more

Landlord loses case for £4 million after dramatic fire damages seven flats

first_imgHome » News » Landlord loses case for £4 million after dramatic fire damages seven flats previous nextRegulation & LawLandlord loses case for £4 million after dramatic fire damages seven flatsLegal tussle between freeholder and apartment leaseholder ends with claims for refurbishment costs and lost rent rejected by judge.Nigel Lewis22nd January 201901,758 Views A rental landlord seeking compensation from a building owner after a fire broke out in a restaurant below flats it was renting out has lost its fight in the courts nine years after the blaze.The fire, liability for which was accepted by the owner of the restaurant at 228 York Road in Battersea, London (pictured), gutted or extensively damaged the three floors above the property which at the time contained seven apartments.After the dramatic blaze on New Year’s Day in 2010, which saw 40 fire fighters rescue two tenants from its top floors, the residents of all the properties had to move out and were collectively awarded over £200,000 in compensation by the building’s insurer.The flats’ leaseholder Palliser Ltd, which holds a 999-year lease on the property, has been seeking compensation of nearly £4 million from freeholder Fate Ltd, which also owned the restaurant below. This included the £225,000 cost of refurbishing the properties plus ‘lost rent’.But in the judgement for the case Andrew Burrows QC has said that Palliser is only due £8,500.“The claim for loss of profits fails because the claimant falls a long way short of proving on the balance of probabilities that, but for the fire, it would have sold 228 York Road in 2010 or that it would have gone on to make the profits (of £3,803,721 plus interest) as set out in the schedule,” he said.During the case it emerged that Fate Ltd had under-valued the property as a whole and that its insurance did not cover the floors above the restaurant. After the fire Fate Ltd went into liquidation and it took seven years for the restaurant to re-open.Read the judgement in full. palliser ltd Andrew Burrows QC fate ltd January 22, 2019Nigel LewisWhat’s your opinion? Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment.Please note: This is a site for professional discussion. Comments will carry your full name and company.This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.Related articles Letting agent fined £11,500 over unlicenced rent-to-rent HMO3rd May 2021 BREAKING: Evictions paperwork must now include ‘breathing space’ scheme details30th April 2021 City dwellers most satisfied with where they live30th April 2021last_img read more

MSDEBT Practice Skills aboard HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën

first_img MSDEBT Practice Skills aboard HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën View post tag: africa View post tag: practice View post tag: europe View post tag: skills View post tag: Navy Authorities July 2, 2014 On board HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën the Maltese Special Duties Enhanced Boarding Team (MSDEBT) works hard to maintain their skills by conducting regular training.center_img View post tag: Naval Before the deployment started, the MSDEBT visited the Royal Netherlands Navy base in Den Helder to train on the ship with the onboard teams.But also during deployment training does not stop: shooting, fast-rope exercises and the cooperation with the Dutch ship’s search and guard teams are on the training-plan. The MSDEBT adds frequent exercises with the ship’s medical department to maintain their medical capabilities.Of course, physical training is also essential – as a bonus, the MSDEBT gives cross-fit classes for the whole ship’s company on the flight-deck whenever there is an opportunity.The MSDEBT embarked the Dutch Frigate during its port visit to the Republic of Malta on the way to the EU Naval Force area of operation in May. They will remain embarked in HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën for her full tour as part of EU Naval Force.[mappress]Press Release, July 02, 2014; Image: EU NAVFOR View post tag: HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën Back to overview,Home naval-today MSDEBT Practice Skills aboard HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën View post tag: MSDEBT View post tag: News by topic Share this articlelast_img read more

Exchange Club Donation Supports American Legion Care Packages to Military Personnel Serving Overseas

first_imgThe Ocean City Exchange Club has donated $7,000 to American Legion Post 524 to help fund monthly Coffee Express Care Package shipments to military personnel serving overseas. The program packs and mails items donated by many local businesses as a way to say “thank you for your service,” and also to bring a taste of the Jersey Shore to those far away.According to program Chairman John Laughlin, this is the ninth year that care packages have been assembled at Post 524 and shipped worldwide. Over 1,500 packages have been delivered to date.The Exchange Club donation, the result of funds raised during its annual Roger La Rosa Charity Golf Tournament, will fund the mailing of care packages well into the next year, according to Legion Adjutant Jack Hagan. “It’s kind of a costly program,” he said, “so we are very thankful.”Ocean City American Legion Post 524 members fill Care Packages with goods donated by local merchants. Boxes are shipped overseas to active duty military personnel.“Our main areas of focus,” said Exchange Club Board of Directors John Van Stone, “we call the three C’s: children, community, and country. Today’s donation really comes under that third C.”Both organizations receive letters from military personnel thanking them for remembering their sacrifices in the field. One such correspondence recently came from US Air Force Staff Sargent Andrew Mosley, stationed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.“I’m writing to let you know that I received a care package from the American Legion Post 524 and I was utterly blown away by your thoughtfulness, kindness and generosity in sending it. Talk about bringing a slice of home to a weary warrior. I’m just over half way done with a six month deployment and all of the items in the package, from the popcorn, to the taffy, to the coffee from Ocean City, NJ just plain made me happy and hopeful about getting back home to the shore.”  For more information about the Ocean City Exchange Club, visit ocxc.org or call Club President Jerry Kanefsky at (609) 432-4555.The Ocean City American Legion can be contacted by visiting legion524ocnj.org or by contacting Jack Hagan at [email protected] . The Ocean City Exchange Club presented a $7,000 check to American Legion Post 524 in support of their monthly Coffee Express Care Package shipments to military personnel serving overseas. Exchange Club members (shown l to r): Jim Solarski, John Van Stone, Bill Culp, Mark Cassidy present the donation to American Legion Coffee Express Care Package Chairman John Laughlin.last_img read more

New Cardiff bakery to open next week

first_imgPettigrew Bakeries, a spin-off of Cardiff’s Pettigrew Tea Rooms, is to open next month.It is to be a “traditional shop where you can stock up on bread, cakes, patisserie, sandwiches, tea and coffee”, according to founder and owner David Le Masurier.Le Masurier set up the tea rooms in 2012, and it now employs 17 staff. The bakery will launch on St David’s Day, 1 March.According to the Pettigrew Bakeries twitter feed: “Getting quite a few asks about what kind of Artisan ‪#‎bread we will be producing.”It said the bread will be the work of Cardiff resident, Angharad Conway, who will be the bakery’s “head of artisan”.Bread and bakery products will be made using both traditional and artisan techniques. Or as they put it: “Our bakery will fulfil a dream for us to become a true producer in south Wales, supplying more incredible baking to more people than ever.”last_img read more

The grad students’ guru

first_imgCynthia Verba may be the premier authority on French Enlightenment composer Jean-Philippe Rameau. But the work she is best known for makes no mention of music theory or Gallic philosophy.The title, like its author, brings to mind a more genteel time in academe: “Scholarly Pursuits.” It’s Verba’s calling card, a dissertation on the dissertation  — and everything else that graduate students encounter on the road to becoming professors.“My family teases me because this gets more hits than my first book on Rameau,” Verba said, holding up a bound copy of her volume published by the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences (GSAS), where she is director of fellowships.In more than three decades at Harvard, Verba has become a professional guru for graduate students trying to get ever-more-competitive fellowships and tenure-track jobs. She’s also a scholar in her own right, which allows her a special kinship with the students who show up to her Holyoke Center office looking to improve drafts of their application essays.“I don’t see music scholarship as an escape from my everyday world, nor do I see my everyday world as an answer to the loneliness of writing,” she said.Verba has developed a reputation as a sharp editor and a dispenser of tough love. One Harvard student created a Facebook group devoted to the advising experience: “Cynthia Verba Still Makes Me Cry — But Sometimes They’re Tears of Joy!!”“She is not there to make you feel great about your draft,” said Kirstin Scott, a second-year student in the interdisciplinary health policy doctoral program. “She’s there to help ensure you walk out with a strong essay or a plan for how to improve it.”With Verba’s help, Scott secured federal funding from both the National Science Foundation and the Jacob K. Javits Fellowships Program (though she ultimately had to decline the latter). Scott has become an acolyte, recommending Verba to incoming Ph.D. students every chance she gets. “I feel incredibly indebted to her,” Scott said.Verba’s Harvard connection dates back more than 50 years ago, when she met her husband, then “a very sophisticated Harvard sophomore,” while working as a camp counselor. (The dashing sophomore, Sidney Verba, went on to become a respected political scientist and director of the Harvard Library, and now holds the title of Carl H. Pforzheimer University Research Professor Emeritus.)Verba earned a master’s degree at Stanford and a doctorate in musicology at the University of Chicago while raising the couple’s three daughters. The family settled at Harvard for her husband’s appointment, and in 1978 she took a job advising graduate students at Harvard’s Office of Career Services. At the time, Harvard had no professional counseling for Ph.D. candidates.“This was a brand new field,” Verba said. Doctoral students “were surrounded by scholars, and yet no one thought to tell them how to become a scholar.”She found she was making up ways to help as she went along. “My husband says an idea doesn’t exist until you can write it down,” she said. So she did, drafting “Scholarly Pursuits” in the early 1980s and helping to professionalize a new administrative field in higher education.She transitioned into her current position at GSAS in 1986. Until three years ago, she also taught music history at Harvard Extension School.At the start, Verba made two promises to herself: that she would continue to pursue her scholarly passion — her work on Rameau — and that any advice she gave her student advisees she would follow herself.She kept her word. Her first book, “Music and the French Enlightenment: Reconstruction of a Dialogue, 1750-1764,” was published by Oxford Clarendon Press in 1993, and “Dramatic Expression in Rameau’s Tragédie Lyrique: Between Tradition and Enlightenment” is forthcoming from Cambridge University Press.“It’s my goal to help students, but it’s also in my own interest to be practicing what I preach,” she said. “I do not find it easy to go to publishers and say, ‘You’ll love my book,’ [or] to contact French scholars and say, ‘Would you be willing to read a draft?’ So I know when I tell students to do it, I’m giving them a challenge.”Despite its obstacles, the life of a scholar is rich with rewards, Verba said. She relishes the chance to see graduate students thrive in their disciplines.“I think they’re all crazy,” she said, stopping abruptly to clarify. “Crazy like an artist, because of their deep commitment. I have that feeling about my life, and I like to see it in theirs.”last_img read more

Warm welcome for Washington

first_img Rubbernecking members of Harvard’s Finals Club watch the parade from their perch. Photo by Kris Snibbe/Harvard Staff Photographer A Hasty affair An onlooker tries for the perfect Snapchat. Photo by Shraddha Gupta Daniel Hughes ’18 and Kerry Washington attempted to eat a barrel of popcorn, a favorite food of Olivia Pope, the character played by Washington on the hit show “Scandal.” Kris Snibbe/Harvard Staff Photographer The Hasty Pudding Woman of the Year parade kicks off. Photo by Shraddha Guptacenter_img The parade draws a big crowd on Massachusetts Avenue in Cambridge. Photo by Kris Snibbe/Harvard Staff Photographer No stranger to “Scandal,” Woman of the Year Kerry Washington beholds the spectacle. Photo by Shraddha Gupta Hasty Pudding Theatricals’ 66th Woman of the Year brought a touch of scandal to Harvard Square on Thursday. Kerry Washington, known to many as Olivia Pope from Shonda Rhimes’ hit TV show “Scandal,” came to campus for a day of celebration and to receive the Pudding Pot, Hasty’s highest honor.Washington, who arrived in a spirited mood from the L.A. set of “Scandal,” first embarked on a tour of the historic Hasty Pudding Clubhouse, led by group historians Dan Milaschewski ’17 and Betty Lema ’17. Emerging from an initiation ceremony in the basement, she said, “I actually feel closer to all of you.”Next came a stop to sign the guest book, and then she was given her medal and ceremonial scarf.“This is beautiful,” Washington said.“Do you promise to wear it every day?” a Hasty Pudding member joked.Raising her hands in the air, Washington exclaimed, “Best day ever!”For millions of Americans, watching “Scandal” on Thursday nights is like gathering around an electronic campfire. At Harvard, the Black Students Association hosts screenings at different locations around campus.Washington, whose performance in the show has made her a star, took some time during her visit to talk about her work, saying she was initially hesitant about getting into television.“It was a little bit of a leap into the unknown,” she said. “It was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made in my life to pursue that character [Olivia Pope], then to get it was such a gift.”Per tradition, Hasty Pudding members dressed in drag paraded Washington down Massachusetts Ave. On either side of the car, fans yelled “Kerry!” in hopes of getting a wave. One spectator remarked, “I think we really connected,” after a return wave from Washington.,Among the crowd was a group of friends whose bond developed when they started live-Tweeting one another five years ago during “Scandal” watch nights. They finally connected in person after all choosing Boston colleges, and reunited again for the parade.After the parade comes the roast, where Washington revised her “best day ever” to “best worst day ever.” The guest of honor was subjected to a number of harsh challenges to earn her Pudding Pot, smashing everything from a piñata to a series of balloons emblazoned with her face.“That’s, like, against my Neutrogena contract!” Washington joked in response.When presented with a laptop, Washington turned to the audience in shock. “Someone needs that!” she said. After Hasty members assured her it was already broken, she reluctantly agreed to the task.In her acceptance speech, Washington offered some words of advice. “Don’t stop stepping into other people’s shoes,” she said, perhaps a reference to the elaborate costumes of her Hasty hosts. “Repeat after me,” she implored the crowd, “I will never forget how lucky I am to be here.” And just as no one says no to Olivia Pope, the crowd obliged.last_img read more

Pollster looks at how pandemic, loss of RBG may affect election

first_img Comey defends ‘nightmare I can’t awaken from’ GAZETTE: What question reveals the most vital information in this election?HARRISON:  For an incumbent president, presidential job approval is really key. An election with an incumbent is typically seen as a retrospective vote on the performance of that incumbent. The closest indicator we have of that is “presidential job approval.” That is a key indicator I look at other than something like presidential vote choice.GAZETTE: Which is the more important number, job approval or disapproval? On average, polls show Trump with approvals in the low 40s and disapprovals in the low 50s.HARRISON:  It’s not clear whether it’s approval that drives it or disapproval that drives it. The notion is that people are registering their evaluation on the incumbent. It’s a different dynamic when there are two challengers. But for an incumbent president, you ordinarily want to see job approval being high. If it perfectly correlates with the vote, above 50 percent would get you the election. Trump’s approval has been below 50 for most of his presidency, and that’s the one factor that ordinarily is the most suggestive in a race with an incumbent.GAZETTE: If there’s a dramatic uptick in voting by mail and/or early voting, how does that change the way that campaigns will use polling data, and does it change how the public should be looking at them as well?HARRISON:  Since there are going to be more people voting earlier now, it should make the pre-election polls more accurate. With an Election Day exit poll, you’re finding out how people voted five or six hours or so before the votes are counted. With early voting or vote by mail, you’re finding out days, even weeks, before. So that should make them more accurate. Now the caveat I’d have here is this assumes that the mailed ballots are received and are counted. In the primaries, there were a number of problems with mail ballots being disqualified for different sorts of reasons. So what I’m going to be looking at closely is how the mail is functioning, but even more so, how many of those mailed ballots are disqualified when they’re received. Because that’s a case where you could see pre-election polls or even exit polls differ from the election results. A poll can only measure whom you intended to vote for; it doesn’t measure whether that vote was counted.GAZETTE: What impact could the vacancy on the Supreme Court have on the election?HARRISON:  It’s hard to tell. Historically, Republican voters have been more passionate in translating court choices into votes, so a simple take is it would benefit Trump, if only in energizing turnout from socially conservative voters. But if you look at the specific states in play and the coalitions in play, it might be more complex. Trump was already doing well among the conservative voters who care about the court. In contrast, in the last election, Trump drew quite a few votes from working-class voters, especially in the Midwest, who are pro-choice, and who might care about the court shifting too far to the right on social issues. So, I don’t have a clear take on whether in the end it will impact the election one way or another.GAZETTE: How are polling firms adjusting for respondents who want to mislead or deceive them or making sure that they’re not just talking to people willing to answer polls?HARRISON:  There’s not a ton of evidence that people lie to pollsters about their election choices in the United States. The bigger problem is that you get different types of people completing the poll than you sampled. You have a low response rate and its differential for some groups, with education being the classic one that tripped people up in 2016. So what you try to do is to adjust for all of the factors that you can measure, to control for that differential nonresponse. The key factors that people typically include are geographic region, sometimes urbanicity, gender, age, education, race. Once you control for region, urbanicity, gender, age, education, and race, you should have a more accurate result. I would point out that the national polls in 2016 were almost remarkably right. They overestimated Clinton by about a percentage point and in fact, most of the polls had come out before the [former FBI Director James] Comey revelation [about the discovery of emails possibly linked to an investigation of Clinton’s private email server]. There was a lot of talk about “shy Trump voters” in 2016. There’s not much empirical evidence for that.GAZETTE: What about in this election?HARRISON:  Well, people don’t seem to be very shy about announcing their support for Donald Trump. Wearing a hat is certainly something more public than telling a pollster that you support a candidate. If there were a “shy Trump” effect you’d expect to see self-administered polls like internet polls showing higher margins for Trump than interviewer-administered telephone polls. You don’t see that. “The race could hinge on Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Florida, he could probably take the election with any one of those three states, and they will all be slow-counting states.” Related Fall poll finds them divided on the scope and style of change needed for the nation GAZETTE: With the Electoral College, only about eight states will decide this election. Which demographic group of voters in these states are potentially the most decisive?HARRISON:  The thing I’m watching the most is voters 65-plus because that’s a large group. It’s a group that’s supported Trump before. And so, as the data currently suggests that they’re not supporting Trump, it’s hard to see how Trump can pull off a re-election without an advantage in voters 65-plus even if Trump improves his margins with Hispanic voters. In Florida, if you compare the Hispanic vote to the 65-plus vote, even though they’re both large, there’s really no comparison in terms of the influence on the election.By and large, the swing states are the same as they were last time. The one real exception seems to be Arizona, which has been polling consistently well for, in fact possibly better for, Biden than some of the upper Midwest states. … So that’s going to be an interesting state to watch.GAZETTE: A record number cast votes for a midterm election in 2018. Does robust voter turnout favor one candidate over the other?HARRISON:  The current data tends to show that Biden does slightly better among all voters than he does among likely voters. The fewer survey respondents who are considered likely voters, the more the results tend to shift a little bit toward Trump. It’s not really pronounced, but it’s enough to make a difference in a close election. So, I would say a high turnout election would benefit Biden. It’s one of the reasons I’m looking so much at that 65-plus vote, just because it’s not what I would have expected. And, if it holds, it would make all of the other factors less relevant because it’s a large demographic group, with high levels of turnout, that supported Trump in 2016. Faith in the ballot Public opinion research will need an impeccable 2020 election to repair its battered credibility after 2016, when most polls on Election Day had Hillary Clinton clearly ahead if not running away with the presidential race. It will be an especially tricky election taking place amid an ongoing pandemic, reeling economy, civil unrest, wildfires in the West, and the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg leaving a particularly consequential vacancy on the Supreme Court. Voting is now underway in 29 states, with a record six in 10 registered voters saying they want to cast their ballots before Nov. 3. What insight can the polls offer on this unprecedented election? Chase H. Harrison is senior preceptor in survey research in the Department of Government and associate director of the Program on Survey Research at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science. The Gazette spoke with him about what polling suggests about this year’s race so far and what he’ll be paying attention to during the campaigns’ final weeks.Q&AChase HarrisonGAZETTE:  Many voters have become very skeptical since 2016, when polling in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where the election was decided, failed to anticipate key factors like the large pro-Trump turnout or that undecided voters overwhelmingly broke late for Trump. What’s different this time?HARRISON:  The biggest change is that in 2016, many statewide polls were not weighting their data by education, so they were not adjusting for differences in the level of education in respondents. People with college degrees, almost across the board, have higher response rates to surveys than people without college degrees. Prior to 2016, there weren’t huge differences in the vote based on college degree and non-college degree. The polls that didn’t weight by education systematically overestimated Clinton’s vote. It’s also a problem that you’re trying to do analysis by state, and many of the state-level polls are of middling quality. There are a small number of good polls. What is different is most polls are now weighting for education. People think they’ve learned the lessons from 2016, so we should expect the polls to be at least a little bit better.GAZETTE: What are some interesting trend lines you’re seeing right now?HARRISON:  In 2016, voters 65 and older were one of the groups that was most likely to support Trump. The polling now is showing that these voters are more evenly split or even that they slightly prefer Biden. And since this is such a large group, and it’s especially concentrated in some swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, it has the potential to move the popular vote and also the Electoral College toward Biden. I think that’s the most interesting trend that I’m following right now. It’s also true the Biden doesn’t seem to be doing as well among African American and Hispanic voters as [Hillary] Clinton did, and that is reflected in the marginal difference in the two-party vote. That’s mostly due to a higher percentage of those voters saying that they don’t know who they’re going to vote for, as opposed to Trump increasing his actual numbers with that group. But unless Biden makes up that difference, that would be trouble for him unless it is counterbalanced with a larger group such as voters with a college degree or voters age 65-plus. The other thing that’s always interesting to me, especially teaching in a college environment, is whether younger voters, who prefer Biden, will actually turn out to vote. Normally, younger voters have low levels of turnout. The one exception to that in recent times was in 2008 voting for Barack Obama. So it will be interesting to see if the youth voter turnout is like it was in 2008 or more like 2016. “Since there are going to be more people voting earlier now, it should make the pre-election polls more accurate.” How white evangelicals tour the nation’s capital and redeem a Christian America In Kennedy School appearance, former FBI director revisits his decisions during 2016 presidential election Young voters found more pragmatic than progressive GAZETTE: Even though most states may not finish counting ballots on Election Night, which state could be a reliable bellwether on Nov. 3 for the eventual winners?HARRISON:  The state to watch on the eve of the election is Florida because Florida allows early counting of absentee ballots, they have a history with large vote-by-mail, and they are likely to report the results on election night. So if Florida goes for Biden, we will know on election night that it’s exceptionally unlikely that Trump can win the election.This year, the thing that we haven’t had in the past is we could have some suspense for some number of days after the election where the ballots have not been counted in ways that could impact the Electoral College in one way or another. The race could hinge on Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Florida, he could probably take the election with any one of those three states, and they will all be slow-counting states.GAZETTE: What will you look for in the polls to see how public concerns over COVID-19 may be influencing who is voting and who is not?HARRISON:  There are really two unknowns we don’t have any experience with to make any evaluation. One of them is voter turnout in a pandemic. And the other is how well mass mail voting functions in most states. And so with those two items, that is going to insert more variability into the election results and into differences between the polls and the election compared to anything that the polls might tell us. So I don’t know the factors I would be looking at this year because they’re not the factors I would look at in other years. But they would be things like what percentage of ballots are mailed early or what percentage of them are disqualified? Are COVID rates going up or down? Are people more willing to go outside or less willing to go outside? All sorts of factors like that.Interview has been edited for clarity and length.last_img read more