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NFL Week 2 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds

It’s a cliche: Every game counts in a league that plays just 16 of them. But Benjamin Morris’s findings in his debut Skeptical Football column were nevertheless striking: A Week 1 or Week 2 game can affect an NFL team’s chances of making the playoffs by as much as 20 or 30 percent.We also see that reflected in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings playoff odds, a feature we debuted last week.What are Elo ratings? The short version: Elo ratings are a simple mathematical system originally designed to rate chess players. They’ve since been adapted to a number of sports such as soccer, and we’ve adapted them to the NFL. The Elo ratings only account for fairly basic information like wins and losses, strength of schedule and margin of victory. There are more advanced systems out there, but Elo ratings are transparent, easy to calculate and we can do a lot of fun stuff with them, like simulating the rest of the season and calculating playoff odds. For more on the methodology, see here.In our Week 1 ratings — which were based on a team’s Elo rating at the end of last season — the New England Patriots had a 73 percent chance of making the playoffs and the Miami Dolphins had just a 32 percent chance. But the Dolphins upset the Patriots, and now it’s almost even: New England is at 54 percent to make the playoffs and Miami at 50 percent.Why such a big shift? Well, every game counts (especially a divisional game; our simulation accounts for playoff tiebreakers). But also, the Patriots now look slightly worse than Elo originally pegged them, and the Dolphins look slightly better. Before Week 1, Miami had projected to win 7.7 games; it now projects to win 9.1. In other words, one NFL win for the Dolphins was worth more than one win in the Elo standings because Miami’s Elo rating improved.Here are the latest Elo ratings and playoff odds for all 32 teams:A few other comments:The teams with the largest gains on the week, in addition to the Dolphins, were the Minnesota Vikings, who gained 46 Elo points after demolishing the St. Louis Rams, and the Tennessee Titans, who added 38 Elo points after beating the Kansas City Chiefs. Both Minnesota and Tennessee are now better than even money to make the playoffs; the Titans are helped by playing in the league’s weakest division (although the NFC East might have something to say about that).It’s early, but perhaps we’re seeing the emergence of a Big Three. The Seattle Seahawks are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl, at 16 percent, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at 13 percent and the Denver Broncos at 11 percent. Then there’s a fairly big drop to the Carolina Panthers at 7 percent.Meanwhile, in the it’s-already-time-to-panic department, the Chiefs project to just a 6-10 record and have only a 13 percent chance of making the playoffs.Elo ratings can also be used to derive point spreads. We strongly advise that you don’t bet on these, at least not without considering a lot of other information — Vegas betting lines are too sophisticated to be beaten by a simple system like Elo. Still, it’s fun to track their progress. Last week, they went 8-8 against point spreads as listed at Pro-Football-Reference.com.There are some funky matchups this week. Elo has the Vikings at almost even money at home against New England, while Vegas has the Patriots as 3-point favorites. Another point of disagreement is Seattle at San Diego; Vegas has the Seahawks as 6-point favorites — a lot on the road against a playoff team. Elo thinks they should be favored over the Chargers by a field goal instead. read more

Shankhachil is all set to fly on Poila Boishakh

first_imgLike rivers that cascade fearlessly through landscapes that belong to different countries, like winds that blow incessantly over barbed wires, birds fly and nestle boundlessly. Borders have been built through water-bodies, fields and even houses by humans, and they are for humans. Goutam Ghose’s National Award winning Best Bengali Film Shankhachil is a poignant tale that portrays the plight of a family in crisis. Muntasir Badal Choudhury is a reputed teacher in a village close to the border in Bangladesh. He lives with his wife Laila, and their world revolves around their daughter Rupsha who is the apple of their eyes.  Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’He often stands on the riverbank wrapping his arm around his beloved daughter, narrating to her how unstoppable the flow of the river is. Their life is peaceful until one day they realise the border isn’t just a mere geographical reminder of the partition. The story starts rolling when they come to Kolkata for their ailing daughter’s treatment, and takes a sordid turn with the miseries the couple faces. Shankhachil, a species of kite, is symbolic in the film. The name metaphorically exhibits the freedom of a bird that flies across borders, no nationality to bind it to one land. Only if humans could be kites, their wings spread against the azure sky, strengthening them to soar high above the border wires to distant lands they don’t need to know the names of!  Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixThe film releases simultaneously in India and Bangladesh on Poila Boisakh, the first day of Bengali New Year on April 14. Winning the Best Bengali Film accolade at the 63rd National Awards, a fortnight before the release, would help the film to do better at the box office. The producers, cast and crew are from both the nations, and that’s what strengthens the essence of the film. Shankhachil has been co-produced by Prosenjit Chatterjee and Mou Roychowdhury, and two producers from Bangladesh are Habibur Rahman Khan and Faridur Reja Sagar. Shankhachil is Ghose’s third Indo-Bangladesh venture.  The film stars Prosenjit Chatterjee in the lead role with Bangladeshi actor Kusum Sikder playing the character of his wife, and child artist Shajbati as their daughter. The cast includes Dipankar Dey, Mamunur Rashid, Prabir Mitra, Nakul Vaid, Rosey Siddiqui, Ushasie Chakraborty and Arindam Sil in pivotal roles. Priyanshu Chatterjee has made a special appearance. Music comprises of songs of the greatest poets of all times – Rabindranath Tagore, Jibanananda Das, Mukunda Das, Kazi Nazrul Islam and Rajanikanta Sen. Talented singers of the Bengali film industry and the folk-singers of Gorbahanga have lent their voices to infuse life into the lyrics. The music has been carefully chosen, and is bound to boundlessly engulf the audience in nostalgia. Prosenjit ChatterjeeAfter ruling the Bengali film industry for over three decades, superstar Prosenjit Chatterjee has now settled for experimental films and likes to reinvent himself as an actor with every failure. Prosenjit has acted in more than 300 Bengali feature films as the lead for the past 30 years. As Chairman and Managing Director of nideas, he has successfully produced a couple of superhit mega serials in Bengali channels. Shankhachil produced by him has bagged the National Award for Best Bengali Film this year.Mou RoychowdhuryMou Roychowdhury is undoubtedly a new age ardent film producer who believes in aesthetic and meaningful films that would cut an edge in the arena of movie industry. Mou Roychowdhury’s production hallmark has always been the depiction of real life characters through the form of healthy entertainment. She has been extremely instrumental in transforming V3G Films in 2004. A few movies produced by her include Shankhachil, Shesh Boley Kichu Nei and Gorosthane Sabdhan.Habibur Rahman KhanIn 1972 he produced his first film named Titash Ekti Nodir Nam directed by renowned Indian director Ritwik Ghatak. In 1985 he produced his first India-Bangladesh co-production film named Birodh directed by Promod Chakrabarty, a film director from Mumbai. In 1991 he produced another India-Bangladesh co-production film named Padma Nodir Majhi directed by Goutam Ghose with government of West Bengal. Padma Nodir Majhi received UNESCO award from Cannes Film Festival. Faridur Reza SagarEminent media personality, Faridur Reza Sagar is a thoroughly cultural man. He is industrious and is working relentlessly for the development of media in Bangladesh. He has played a great role after the completion of the Reminiscence Book, Ek Jiboney Television, which has covered the history of Bangladesh Television. Sagar has changed the image of the film industry, solely producing at least 100 full length Bengali feature films. In 2015, he clinched the most prestigious and highest civil award of Bangladesh.last_img read more